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Thread: New Supreme Court Justice, 2016 (Now with 100% more 2018!)

  1. #121
    A Matter Of How You See It Kala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regina Phalange View Post
    Judge Kavanaugh and Mark Judge - oh the irony of these names.

  2. #122
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    Poor mike judge of Silicon Valley Daria beavis and butthead fame is accidentally getting dragged.

    Trigger warning on this. New depths to plumb.


  3. #123
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    Today is going to be ugly.



    The GOP senators who are considering voting against Kavanaugh are likely talking to each other. It's a "hold hands" situation, like when Collins-Murkowski-McCain opposed ACA repeal. Collins & Murkowski likely move together - splitting pits them against each other.

    The nay bloc makes clear to McConnell that he doesn't have the votes and in the same breath, promise to vote for whoever is the next nom. McConnell then tells the WH he doesn't have the votes, urges them to get Kavanaugh to withdraw and get a new nominee on track ASAP.

    This will happen because (bummer alert) Republicans still have time to fill the seat if Kavanaugh withdraws. Voting for him has become toxic & their ultimate goal isn't to confirm K, it's to fill the seat. And they all know it's possible to fill the seat without the toxic vote.

    Here's the rub: only the WH can withdraw the nomination. All the Senate can do is return the nomination to the WH at the end of this Congress (1/3/19). McConnell can hold a losing vote, but even that doesn't withdraw the nomination.

    So that's where Trump comes in.

    If McConnell doesn't have the votes he almost certainly will not hold a vote. A failed vote is a terrible vote for his members. The only scenario in which he does is if he has to prove to the WH that doesn't have the votes, to get them to withdraw his nomination & move on.

    The big question is whether Trump sees Kavanaugh as a proxy for himself and on that basis, refuses to withdraw his nomination. In that scenario, you might see the kind of stalemate that would prompt McConnell to hold a failed vote. Unlikely for sure - but who the hell knows.

    And there's the question of Kavanaugh's mentality. He's a man who likes to roll the dice - literally. Does he decide it's SCOTUS or bust? If he testifies under oath, seems like he has a 5% chance of getting confirmed & a 95% chance of getting disbarred. Maybe he likes those odds.

    In sum, @NateSilver538 is 100% right that the best case for Rs is for Kavanaugh to withdraw on his own. They can wash their hands, say it's not their fault & move to confirm his replacement ASAP. But there's a lot that has to happen between here & there.
    I agree with the above take. If Kavanaugh vote goes through, assuming the hearings are a draw politically, and he gets confirmed, every Dem candidate's campaign ad is written. "Here's a raper. That's what you get when you vote GOP. They knew and they don't care." It's bad. Right now, Mitch can hot potato it back to Trump. (for the most part. who knew what when is a whole other bad story, but one that might not develop for a while.) Right now, it's Trump's mess. If the senate votes and especially if they vote yes, it's their mess too.

    The only good thing about this is imagining how angry Mitch is.

  4. #124
    And in the evening it's. . . Andrea's Avatar
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    Do we think they had a whiff of this earlier and that's why Mitch argued against K as the nominee? And Trump didn't care because this is the guy who won't allow him to be prosecuted while in office and also because he knows from experience that sexual assault doesn't necessarily disqualify you?

    That would be amazing for Farrow to get his hands on: something early that suggested this might happen and the Rs moving on with the process not caring.

  5. #125
    Insert something clever here iamstilljamiepoo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andrea View Post
    Do we think they had a whiff of this earlier and that's why Mitch argued against K as the nominee? And Trump didn't care because this is the guy who won't allow him to be prosecuted while in office and also because he knows from experience that sexual assault doesn't necessarily disqualify you?

    That would be amazing for Farrow to get his hands on: something early that suggested this might happen and the Rs moving on with the process not caring.
    I think this is the most likely scenario. I have neck cramps from shaking my head so damn much.

    Did you all see this? I can't find the Twitter string, but these are all allegedly Repub operatives. Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere.

  6. #126
    DEEKWARE INDYPENDANTS!!! halo eighteen's Avatar
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    ^I fucking blew the fuck up at a co-worker last week when he came in the room going on about how if we're 'going to go all the way back to high school to look for things people have done then I should probably be in prison' and I'm like seriously? First off, you're not running for supreme court justice. Also, what he did was pretty much rape. And also, that's gross as fuck.

    He then was fighting me on the whole rape thing, 'Oh, I hadn't heard that. Where did you hear that? It was just groping from everything I read' - I just said I'm glad those are qualities you really don't mind a fricking justice of the supreme court having, and walked out of the room to him sarcastically, loudly, saying WOW.

    Like, you come into MY work room and start empathizing/being all nostalgic for rape culture and I will fucking not have it. What a fucking asshole.

  7. #127
    Senior Member Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by halo eighteen View Post
    ^I fucking blew the fuck up at a co-worker last week when he came in the room going on about how if we're 'going to go all the way back to high school to look for things people have done then I should probably be in prison' and I'm like seriously? First off, you're not running for supreme court justice. Also, what he did was pretty much rape. And also, that's gross as fuck.

    He then was fighting me on the whole rape thing, 'Oh, I hadn't heard that. Where did you hear that? It was just groping from everything I read' - I just said I'm glad those are qualities you really don't mind a fricking justice of the supreme court having, and walked out of the room to him sarcastically, loudly, saying WOW.

    Like, you come into MY work room and start empathizing/being all nostalgic for rape culture and I will fucking not have it. What a fucking asshole.
    This is the whole thing that was bugging me during a CNN round-table this weekend that nobody was bringing up. We aren't sending Kavanaugh to prison; there is no punishment being floated whatsoever - we just aren't giving him a huge reward. That's not the same thing. People are acting like he's not going to be a wealthy white dude when all the smoke clears.

  8. #128
    Insert something clever here iamstilljamiepoo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    This is the whole thing that was bugging me during a CNN round-table this weekend that nobody was bringing up. We aren't sending Kavanaugh to prison; there is no punishment being floated whatsoever - we just aren't giving him a huge reward. That's not the same thing. People are acting like he's not going to be a wealthy white dude when all the smoke clears.
    Oh my God, fucking same. This "Innocent until Proven Guilty," shit. Sure, if he had been indicted and arrested for such crimes. Yes, let's try him in a court of law where he would be...you guessed it, innocent until proven guilty. But he's not. This is an amped-up job interview. He sure as fuck shouldn't get this job, just based on the bullshit that's been dug up on him - alone what's out there and verifiable, whether this accusation is true or not (it fucking is, but for sake of argument).

  9. #129
    DEEKWARE INDYPENDANTS!!! halo eighteen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    This is the whole thing that was bugging me during a CNN round-table this weekend that nobody was bringing up. We aren't sending Kavanaugh to prison; there is no punishment being floated whatsoever - we just aren't giving him a huge reward. That's not the same thing. People are acting like he's not going to be a wealthy white dude when all the smoke clears.
    Lindsey Graham's sound bite this morning had me noticeably cringing when he said there's virtually nothing Dr. Ford could say that would get him to vote no and that he's not going to "ruin Kavanaugh's life" over this.

    Um, fucking what?? Him not getting on the SCOTUS is ruining his life? Fuck off.

  10. #130
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    I think I'm at the point where I don't need to know that there's more. I know there's more.

    But hey, there's more. Not Ms Ford. Not Ms Ramirez. Not the other one.

    Montgomery County investigators confirmed Monday they’re aware of a potential second sexual assault complaint in the county against former Georgetown Prep student and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

    While investigators weren’t specific and spoke on background, they said they are looking at allegations against Kavanaugh during his senior year in high school after an anonymous witness came forward this weekend.

  11. #131
    Senior Member Nick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by halo eighteen View Post
    Lindsey Graham's sound bite this morning had me noticeably cringing when he said there's virtually nothing Dr. Ford could say that would get him to vote no and that he's not going to "ruin Kavanaugh's life" over this.

    Um, fucking what?? Him not getting on the SCOTUS is ruining his life? Fuck off.
    Nobody on that side is crying for Merrick Garland either, and he didn't (as far as we know) sexually assault anyone.

  12. #132
    Remember. Steve SFM's Avatar
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    Just saw Avenatti on Rachel’s show.

    Kavanaugh is done.

    And I wouldn’t want to be Mark Judge right now.
    At my core, I think we're gonna be OK.

    Barack Hussein Obama

  13. #133
    strike every chord that you feel Owen's Avatar
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    How are people still supporting this? I ... I just don't even understand. How can they be so truly disgusting and we have to fight so hard just to win elections ourselves? It's insane.

  14. #134
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    There was a shitshow of a fox interview last night. I didn't watch, but I guess there were some incredible whoppers



    Yes, the strict carding system of high school parties with alcohol at them. Oh, and he wasn't legal because his state had gone to 21 early.

    Why can't he admit that there was underage drinking? The statute of limitations is far gone on that. It's not his fault necessarily it happened and even if it was, so what? The problem isn't that he might have committed a minor crime (especially for rich white kids) 35 years ago. It's that he's lying about it today.

    I drank like a fish before I turned 21. And quite a bit before 18. The only alcohol I've had in the last few years is the wine I put in my food when I cook. It's not a big deal 35 years later.

    There was an infuriating piece on the NYT podcast The Daily today featuring Ross Douthat (ugh) about why the republicans are standing behind him. Some of it is it was "boys will be boys", some of it was "it's not credible at this time,", and the rest are "it's just bullshit all together." There were no women speaking in the piece. No RAINN reps. No person familiar with the accusers. There was even a bit by Mitch on the floor of the Senate yelling about how the women in the Farrow/Mayer piece were unbelievable because they wouldn't speak to the NYT.

    Ronan came out yesterday and said the women didn't talk to the NYT because they were already talking to him. You know, how an exclusive works, esp on a story that hasn't come out yet. The NYT is really fucking it up this week. I don't want to follow right wing "fake news" points, but they have been factually wrong on two big stories this week and instead of correcting the record or shutting the hell up, they keep pushing their own "we're the best! fuck all y'all!" agenda.

  15. #135
    Senior Member fluteoftheloon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve SFM View Post
    Just saw Avenatti on Rachel’s show.

    Kavanaugh is done.

    And I wouldn’t want to be Mark Judge right now.
    Ah crap.


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