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Thread: Road to the 2018 Academy Awards

  1. #151
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    I would also like to include Olivia Munn in the irrational (?) hate category. I'm not sure if it's irrational. She's a terrrrrrrrrrrrrible actor so maybe it's not irrational. But, like with Carteris, I want to punch her face in and that bit with the actually funny Niecy was torture.

  2. #152
    Remember. Steve SFM's Avatar
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    Oldman, McDormand, and Three Billboards. That may be all she wrote.
    At my core, I think we're gonna be OK.

    Barack Hussein Obama

  3. #153
    sing to the moon dAmION's Avatar
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    I watched the SAGs and wasn’t really surprised that it was essentially a repeat of every previous award show this season. I think the acting awards are probably locks although I wouldn’t mind Laurie Metcalf pulling an upset over Allison Janney for Lady Bird. I’m really interested to see what Billboards is going to be nominated for at the Academys. Definitely acting nods for the three leads, but probably also screenplay, director, picture and maybe editing?

    I saw Lady Bird the other day and was really impressed. I’d like it to be front-runner along with Billboards for the rest of the awards season.

  4. #154
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    I read an article that says not to count Shape out just yet. It did win the PGA Award, and that’s a big one.

    Things are particularly fluid this year; the Oscars will not be given out until after the Winter Olympics. So, more time to change minds.
    At my core, I think we're gonna be OK.

    Barack Hussein Obama

  5. #155
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    There haven't been any huge surprises in terms of acting winners in quite some time. I think we're looking at McDormand/Oldman/Janney/Rockwell in the acting categories. More and more the winners seem set in stone with all of these precursors. I gave a quick look at the winners in the four acting categories for the last 15 years or so, and overall there were *very* few surprises. The last winners that could be considered remotely surprising were about a full decade ago in most categories:

    * For Best Actor, the last true surprise was Adrian Brody in The Pianist ... in 2003!
    * For Best Actress, the last winner that was somewhat of a surprise was Marion Cotillard in 2008 (it was considered a showdown between her and Julie Christie).
    * For Best Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton in 2008 was a surprise in a very competitive year where the precursors were divided among several actresses.
    * For Best Supporting Actor, Mark Rylance in 2016 was somewhat of a surprise over Sylvester Stallone.

  6. #156
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    I always forget which day the oscar noms come out. It's tomorrow, people.

  7. #157
    entertaining in its outrage Volta's Avatar
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    Although the winners are a lock I do hope we get some surprises in the rest of the nominations. I'm not so sure that everyone that's been nominated in supporting actress gets in. Janney and Matcalfe are in but Blige, Chau, Spencer might not all get in. Tiffany Haddish I think is going to get in. I wouldn't count out Holly Hunter, either.

    Phantom Thread, which has done nothing in the precursors, has a lot of steady flow and momentum from critics. I look for it to get into some categories that it hasn't been in all season. If there is to be some shocks.. I think it and the bigger wildcard All The Money in the World.. Another film, Hostiles has a little bit of a boost coming in.

    Otherwise:
    Get Out and The Big Sick.. can they keep their momentum?
    Will Greta get in for Director? I don't think she does. I think she and Peele get writing nominations and the academy will think they did right by them.
    Will Blade Runner do well in the Craft sections? It's been pretty consistent, weirdly enough, considering how badly it performed at the Box Office.
    What about Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg? Do they both get in supporting or do neither? I suppose a lot will depend on Woody Harrelson.

    I think there is room for some surprise nominations. Ruth Negga got in last year and that movie was really kind of DOA for the last couple months leading into the Oscars. Who will be the Ruth Negga of 2018? Could it be Annette Bening?

    No one is beating Oldman and Mcdormand. Rockwell will win. Janney loses only to Laurie Metcalfe. So the excitment tomorrow morning will be the surprise nominations and the surprise snubs.
    Last edited by Volta; 01-22-2018 at 09:53 PM.
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  8. #158
    entertaining in its outrage Volta's Avatar
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    Steve, I love when the Oscars fall on a Winter Olympic year because one of the secondary prizes for American medalists is that they often get invited to the Oscars. I remember the year Sasha Cohen won silver she was invited to the Oscars. And she sat through the entire thing.
    I don't know if sitting through the entire ceremony is a blessing or a curse. haha

    I do remember when Eddie Murphy lost supporting to.. Alan Alda, was it? Little Miss Sunshine? Well, anyhow, Murphy who was the favorite lost and immediately left the awards.
    Another funny tidbit was that year when Murphy won the Golden Globe (Dreamgirls) he was at an after party where E! followed him. He met a guy, last name Trump, and told him he was working on getting a movie about breaking into Trump Tower green lit. Trump told him it would be a great idea. I never got around to watching Tower Heist.. so how much of Trump's brand made it in that film, I'll never know.. but it was cool to see how movies get brokered. A lot of moving and shaking at the after parties.
    Miss Vanjieeee. Miss Vanjiee. ..Miss Van..

  9. #159
    Remember. Steve SFM's Avatar
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    You're thinking of Alan Arkin, not Alan Alda.

    Yeah, there are always snubs and surprises in nominations and not so much for winners.

    The Post and Phantom Thread haven't figured so much yet. I expect both will come out tomorrow.

    I would really love it if The Florida Project got into Best Picture. Because it deserves to. and because I wanna see what Bria Vinaite would wear.

    I think you're right about Gerwig and Peele. Which sucks, actually.


    JESSICA CHASTAIN NEEDS TO BE RUTH NEGGA.

    Looking forward to tomorrow!
    At my core, I think we're gonna be OK.

    Barack Hussein Obama

  10. #160
    entertaining in its outrage Volta's Avatar
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    I was actually thinking the actress from Florida Project could be this years Ruth Negga. And then I came back down to reality. I was thinking of scenario where a film like that did get a Best Actress nomination from someone whose name was virtually unknown and I thought of it as the "Maria Full of Grace" scenario. One of the most shocking nominations in that category.
    The Mark Rylance win will forever keep me thrown for a loop.

    Yea. I would love for Oscar to use all 10 slots but I think 7-8 is the trend. IF they were to go all 10 you'd definitely have The Florida Project in there. Phantom Thread would need to under perform.
    I haven't seen either film but my friend and Oscar-nerd saw Phantom Thread and said it was a beautiful film and it will get a nod as well as DD-Lewis. I never thought DD-Lewis could get in.. but with Franco on the outs.

    McDormand said that younger actresses need to get nominated and win in so many words in her SAG speech. I don't think that hurts her. If anything, her acceptance speeches have been so good I can't see her losing. She's just genuine. I do hate that movie, tho. But compare McDormand's speeches to Nicole Kidman. Kidman, whose performances shake me to the core almost always, is the worst speech giver. I guess she'd have to be.. no one can be that perfect. But some of them are very cringe-worthy. Last nights was an improvement, tho.
    Last edited by Volta; 01-23-2018 at 12:37 AM.
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  11. #161
    entertaining in its outrage Volta's Avatar
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    Tomorrow morning are the nominations. Someone please post them if I don't get around to it. PLEASE!!
    Miss Vanjieeee. Miss Vanjiee. ..Miss Van..

  12. #162
    Remember. Steve SFM's Avatar
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    Best Picture:

    “Call Me by Your Name”
    “Darkest Hour”
    “Dunkirk”
    “Get Out”
    “Lady Bird”
    “Phantom Thread”
    “The Post”
    “The Shape of Water”
    “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

    Lead Actor:

    Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
    Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
    Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
    Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
    Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

    Lead Actress:

    Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
    Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
    Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
    Meryl Streep, “The Post”

    Supporting Actor:

    Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
    Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
    Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
    Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

    Supporting Actress:

    Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
    Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
    Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
    Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
    Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

    Director:

    “Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
    “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
    “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
    “Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
    “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

    Animated Feature:

    “The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
    “The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
    “Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
    “Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
    “Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

    Animated Short:

    “Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant
    “Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
    “Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
    “Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
    “Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

    Adapted Screenplay:

    “Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
    “The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
    “Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
    “Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
    “Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

    Original Screenplay:

    “The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
    “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
    “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
    “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
    “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

    Cinematography:

    “Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
    “Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
    “Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
    “Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
    “The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

    Best Documentary Feature:

    “Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
    “Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
    “Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
    “Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
    “Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes

    It’s hard to cut and paste on an iPhone, so that’s all for now. I’ll be back to discuss later.
    At my core, I think we're gonna be OK.

    Barack Hussein Obama

  13. #163
    Senior Member fluteoftheloon's Avatar
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    Best Documentary Feature:
    “Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
    Oh yes please! This was so fantastic, in the sense that I cried through most of it.

  14. #164
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    Yay for Kumail! I adore him so much.

    I haven't seen most of the movies, but the one thing I'd bet money on is Coco will win for best animated feature.

  15. #165
    Nothing for Luca Guadagnino, Armie Hammer or - especially - Michael Stuhlbarg?


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