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Thread: Road to the 2018 Academy Awards

  1. #196
    UNbelievably Awesome Crispy's Avatar
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    Respect to Meowth for actually seeing the foreign films. I've slacked off on seeing those a lot over the years. And BrotherNamedErised, you've got a Brit heavy win ballot there. Any particular reason? Also, really need to see Phantom Thread, CMBYN, & Florida Project soon.

  2. #197
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    Last edited by BrotherNamedErised; 06-10-2018 at 11:28 AM.

  3. #198
    entertaining in its outrage Volta's Avatar
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    I've watched Dunkirk 3 times. I really enjoy the film from a historical standpoint. It's so well made for what it was. It, however, wasn't a character study. What was a character study of the Operation Dynamo is Darkest Hour. If Darkest Hour wasn't in play, I think Dunkirk could actually win a couple of these awards. But two movies about the same thing kinda splits the vote on a preferential ballot.

    I think Shape of Water wins because it's not as divisive as Three Billboards. People who vote for Three Billboards are going to place it 1. I don't see it getting a lot of 2 or 3 votes. Shape of Water is going to get a lot of 1's and 2's therefor making it the winner. Like what happened to La La Land. It had a lot of lovers and a whole lot of haters. The #1 vote wasn't enough.
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  4. #199
    sing to the moon dAmION's Avatar
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    ^I think the lack of directing nomination kicks out Billboards. Unless it follows the pattern of last year and Best Director and Best Picture are split. Then it could be Billboards for picture and Shape of Water for best director.

  5. #200
    streak his blood across my beak PoorMatty's Avatar
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    Best Picture
    Will Win: The Shape of Water or Three Billboards (hope not Three Billboards)
    Should Win: Lady Bird

    Best Director
    Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
    Should Win: Guillermo del Toro, Greta Gerwig, or Jordan Peele, would all be deserving, I truly can't decide

    Best Actor
    Will Win: Gary Oldman -- hope not, but I just feel like that's the way they're gonna go.
    Should Win: Timothée Chalamet or DDL

    Best Actress
    Will Win: Frances McDormand
    Should Win: Everybody nominated was amazing (haven't seen I, Tonya yet), so I'd be happy with anyone but Streep, who was great, but come on. That said, I'm especially fond of Sally Hawkins' performance.

    Best Supporting Actor
    Will Win: Sam Rockwell or Willem Dafoe
    Should Win: Richard Jenkins - he broke my heart in this role; however, I haven't seen AtMitW or TFP

    Best Supporting Actress
    Will Win: Allison Janney
    Should Win: I am insanely torn between Lesley Manville and Laurie Metcalf who were both incredible in such different ways. Probably my two favorite performances of the year. I haven't seen Mudbound or I, Tonya yet. Octavia Spencer is always great, but hers was not an Oscar-worthy role.

  6. #201
    Only knows desire. Perky Compson's Avatar
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    I feel like the only person who was severely underwhelmed by The Shape of Water. Sally Hawkins and Richard Jenkins did excellent jobs, but nowhere near what Margot Robbie and Sam Rockwell did, imo.

    Billboards all the way. With a splash of I, Tonya. Robbie truly disappeared into that role. Her whole body language and facial expressions captured Tonya Harding.

  7. #202
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    Not a fan of The Shape of Water. It's pretty, but wouldn't even place Del Toro in the director category - Luca Guadagnino should be there instead.
    I will concede that Sally Hawkins is incredible and manages to hold the movie together. I hope she wins.

    What would really bug is Gary Oldman's fat suit winning over Timothee, whose performance is literally flawless.
    DDL is also deserving, but he's done better work.

  8. #203
    entertaining in its outrage Volta's Avatar
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    I, Tonya isn't even nominated for Best Picture or I would have put it on SHOULD.
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  9. #204
    UNbelievably Awesome Crispy's Avatar
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    Saw The Phantom Thread & Darkest Hour and I gotta say, Oldman > Lewis. Music, costumes. and cinematography in TPT were great, but the story and characters...meh.

  10. #205
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    I'm slowly making my way through the major nominees I hadn't already seen. I was underwhelmed by The Post. I was super excited by the idea of a cross between All The President's Men and Spotlight. But it literally felt like a cross of the two of them. Nothing new. Great cast, but you hardly got to see anyone besides Hanks, Streep, and Better Call Saul. Not that it's a problem to focus on three people in a broad movie, but it just didn't work in this movie because everyone else was on screen for 3 seconds and not very memorable.

    I Tonya met my lowest expectations. I was hoping it would have been a little better. And maybe I'm an elitist snob, but I still don't like her, even if I do admit she might have had nothing to do with the Nancy stuff. And I fucking hated Nancy too... so it wasn't a matter of taking one's side over the other's.

    Phantom Thread didn't impress me much. Day-Lewis was great and super convincing. Usually his affectations annoy me as just too much, but it worked here. But the movie... ugh. It reminded me of Alfred Nobbs: a potentially interesting character study in a period setting that just kind of had nothing else going for it. Dry. And he was a total dick.

    My expectations based on my previous nomination viewings weren't very high for The Florida Project. I knew nothing about it going in (and, to be fair to Thread, I knew nothing about it either) and I was enthralled. I can see why it wouldn't be for everyone. It was hard to watch and I can see where someone might call it dull and boring, but I couldn't tear my eyes from it. Defoe was amazing and I might be pulling for him just for pulling off a bird pun towards the end.

    You really felt like you were there with the characters with how it was shot. (I swear I saw the hotel I stayed in the last time I went to Disney.) It felt like a documentary. What a great look at class and privilege and poverty in modern day America. And, unlike 3 Billboards, it can examine complicated issues without throwing around racist shit or being ableist. I'm super bummed by the movie but at the same time pumped because it was fantastically done.

  11. #206
    Senior Member grapefruit_is_winning's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regina Phalange View Post

    I Tonya met my lowest expectations. I was hoping it would have been a little better. And maybe I'm an elitist snob, but I still don't like her, even if I do admit she might have had nothing to do with the Nancy stuff. And I fucking hated Nancy too... so it wasn't a matter of taking one's side over the other's.
    Tonya Harding very obviously had something to do with the Nancy bashing, and if you thought the point coming out of the movie was to "like" her, I can see why you would be disappointed.

  12. #207
    Only knows desire. Perky Compson's Avatar
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    Just saw Three Billboards again and loved it a second time. I picked up on so much more of the nuance and so many more of the details on a second watch. I do think there is some carelessness with how race is treated (adding in a highly emotionally-charged and politically-charged subject for flavoring) but I do think the race critique is a bit overblown given that it's not so much that they dropped the ball, they just had the ball on the field when it shouldn't have been. People who are saying Rockwell's character's primary fault is being racist or that he received a redemption arc are, imo, really misreading what's happening in the script, which is about toxic rage and revenge generally.

    Anyway, McDormand completely sold me again, especially during the scene with the deer or the one with her husband and the cereal.

  13. #208
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grapefruit_is_winning View Post
    Tonya Harding very obviously had something to do with the Nancy bashing, and if you thought the point coming out of the movie was to "like" her, I can see why you would be disappointed.
    No I don't think the point was to like her, but to have some empathy for her, even if only up to the time of olympics. Sometimes my empathy goes into overdrive but it didn't here. I feel terrible for what happened to her and I don't know how involved she was in the bashing, but I didn't think any differently about her after viewing it than before. I thought the journey was going to be different than it was in bringing out feelings or deep thoughts and it didn't.

    I think I finished the movies I plan on watching.

    I was not overly impressed with Oldman in Darkest Hour. I found him very good at times, but not at others. It's also hard because in my head I couldn't help but compare him to Lithgow in The Crown. Lighgow won for consistency and being able to understand him. Sometimes Oldman would be speaking with one affect, sometimes another.

    Dunkirk was shot beautifully and the story is interesting, but war movies aren't really my thing unless they're Star Wars. I can appreciate its art without ever wanting to see it again.

    I don't have any predictions, nor am I really pulling for anyone in particular. Maybe Get Out for best picture because it captures the 2017 zeitgeist so well.

  14. #209
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    This is from a few years (but updated) ago but someone at Buzzfeed ranked all of the then-winners of Best Picture. There's something for everyone to love and to hate about this list. (I love Amadeus and it might be my second favorite BP winner! It should be higher! Birdman did suck and it should be that low!) The tone is pretty funny and the author shares my distaste for overly long movies... which is kind of funny given that my favorite BP winner is Gone With The Wind, which can feel like the longest commercial movie ever made.

    eta: fixed link

  15. #210
    A Matter Of How You See It Kala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regina Phalange View Post
    I Tonya met my lowest expectations. I was hoping it would have been a little better. And maybe I'm an elitist snob, but I still don't like her, even if I do admit she might have had nothing to do with the Nancy stuff. And I fucking hated Nancy too... so it wasn't a matter of taking one's side over the other's.
    1994 I remember it well. Kerrigan was "America's Sweetheart" and Harding the girl who grew up on the wrong side of the tracks. Couldn't stand either one of them, especially Kerrigan. The real star of it all was Oksana Baiul. At only 16 she skated to a medley of Broadway show tunes which I'm sure she didn't know the words to but she performed with such wonderfully playful artistry. She had that *something* - Nancy skated a clean program but chose to do a double instead of a planned triple flip. Oksana did a double toe loop instead of a triple but had the foresight to add an unscheduled triple at the end of her program to cement her win (some say the old Eastern bloc judges and the one from China gave her the advantage because of politics.) After her skate, Kerrigan whined because Baiul was crying so hard she held up the presentation of the medals to get her make-up redone. Not entirely true. Yes, Oksana wept profusely but the delay occurred primarily because the officials had a difficult time finding the music to the Ukrainian national anthem. Kerrigan also publicly bitched about Baiul's two-footed landing on one of her jumps. Bottom line: Nancy skated with ice cold precision while Oksana skated with affability and sheer joy.

    Oksana grew up poor and orphaned at a fairly young age. She used to resurface the ice by hand at an old Ukrainian rink. After winning the gold medal in Lillehammer she struggled during her professional career in part due to feelings of isolation which led to alcohol abuse and trouble with the law. My understanding is that she received treatment and has been sober since. It was later revealed that Oksana was robbed of millions by her talent agency which was eventually forced to repay her. Now hers is a story I might like to see on the big screen.

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