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Thread: US Elections 2020 - These little earthquakes. Here we go again.

  1. #166
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    For the love of all that is holy, I beg all of you to primary/caucus anyone* else next year.



    *Ok, not Tulsi.

  2. #167
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    Time did a quiz on the Dem candidates. Can you name them all? I got 17 before I had to click "show picture" and then that didn't help me get any more. https://time.com/5599099/democratic-candidate-quiz/

  3. #168
    And in the evening it's. . . Andrea's Avatar
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    I got 13 total. 10 before pictures. I laughed when I realized I forgot Beto was even running.

  4. #169
    Remember. Steve SFM's Avatar
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    16, and pix didn’t help. Not bad. The most famous person I missed was probably DiBlasio. Straight up forgot him. I wonder why.
    At my core, I think we're gonna be OK.

    Barack Hussein Obama

  5. #170
    Senior Member Nick's Avatar
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    11 but 13 if I knew how to spell Gillibrand or De Blasio

  6. #171
    Strangerer Rum 509's Avatar
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    This was in a NYT newsletter I get, it's a quick summation of Warren's positions and consequences. I really like what she's saying, but can she win going this liberal?

    Elizabeth Warren’s plan to remake the U.S. economy

    The Massachusetts senator has stood out among the 23 Democratic presidential candidates by unveiling reams of policy proposals. Together, her plans would move the American economy in a much more liberal direction, Tom Kaplan and Jim Tankersley of the NYT report.

    • “She has called for splintering technology companies, like Amazon, that millions of consumers rely on in their daily lives.”
    • “Ms. Warren would seek big tax increases on the wealthiest individuals and corporations, creating a new tax on household assets that exceed $50 million, as well as a new tax on corporate profits.”
    • “Ms. Warren called for a $2 trillion federal investment in climate-friendly industries and suggested other steps like more actively managing the value of the dollar.”
    • “By pushing out so many proposals so early, Ms. Warren has framed much of the debate in the Democratic primary race, aiding her own rise in the polls.”
    • “But Ms. Warren has already drawn criticism from centrists and conservatives who say her plans — many calling for new regulations — would hurt business and the economy, stifle innovation and potentially harm the very workers they were intended to help.”

  7. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rum 509 View Post
    This was in a NYT newsletter I get, it's a quick summation of Warren's positions and consequences. I really like what she's saying, but can she win going this liberal?
    The only way a democratic nominee can lose is if he or she isn't progressive or 'liberal' enough. They tried running a centrist. It just doesn't work anymore.

  8. #173
    Gone Andromeda grapefruit_is_winning's Avatar
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    That's a hypothesis, not a fact. Hillary's story was more complicated than "too centrist" - a ton of baggage there, and she was an easy target for Republicans, since they had a 20 year old arsenal of vulnerabilities and effective smearing tactics. And besides, there are a million ways a Dem can lose this election. It is certainly not in the bag and very dangerous to think so!

  9. #174
    Administrator Ryan's Avatar
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    And yet with all Hillary’s baggage and supposed unelectibility, she still won the popular vote by a few million.

  10. #175
    Gone Andromeda grapefruit_is_winning's Avatar
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    Personally I think she would have made a good president, I think she's admirable, smart, and serious about results.... versus whatever the fuck this bullshit is we ended up with. I'm not dogging on her. But as you point out Ryan, being electable as president of the US means being able to win the electoral college, which clearly favors conservatives at this sad point in our history. As a result I believe that Americans are significantly more likely to err on the side of far right than far left. Hence, I don't agree that the answer is to find the absolute most liberal candidate to win. I think that path makes Trumpo a shoe-in.

  11. #176
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    Don't forget the election shenanigans: social media manipulation, hacking, voter purging, long lines, broken machines, and less illegal (but still insidious) bullshit, like the Comey letter and the "Let's not look biased" media SALIVATING at attacking a Clinton and ignoring everything Trump did and the other thousand cuts that are leading to the death of our Democracy.

    Given all that and the stuff that's ongoing, it's going to be both the easiest thing ever to beat him and the hardest thing we've done since WWII.

    Specifically, his numbers suck, everyone is sick of him except his base. All of the leading Dems are being him by at least 7 pts in ALL the key states. Turnout in 2018 was impressive. But... voter rules haven't improved, I fear outright voter fraud this time (if there wasn't last time), the GOP is actively obstructing shoring up election security, FB hasn't learned a damn thing except they can do whatever they want, and the Dems are incredibly good and shooting themselves in the foot.

    However, it's still WAY too early for serious predictions. Nadler is saying we'll probably see Mueller testify by October. Trump admitting today he did accept foreign help (in his own way) and that he'd do it again? That's really fucking bad. And sure, it won't take his support down noticeably, but 100 people here and 100 people there? It matters. And we don't know who the D nominee is going to be for ALMOST A YEAR. Sure, Biden is palatable to certain demographics, but is he going to really rally an enthusiastic turnout from the young voters that made '18 a success? Iif the election were tomorrow between Trump and generic Dem, he'd PROBABLY lose, but in 16 months? Who knows.

    I truly think the biggest factor will be the economy. It's still chugging along on Obama's coattails, but indicators are going off about a downturn. And this fucking moron is *making* things worse with rich tax cuts and tariffs. A tanking economy and a competent opponent are the only 10-1 odds of success. A competent opponent encourages left/dem/lib turnout and a tanking economy courts the centrist and never trumpers and makes the MAGA morons stay home.
    Last edited by Regina Phalange; 06-13-2019 at 02:25 AM.

  12. #177
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
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    Also we don't know if he'll go and nuke Cuba or something when he gets booed at the Fourth of July events he's inserting himself into. And if he makes a war out of nothing, would it make him more popular or less? Too many variables and as the walls close in he's going to get more erratic.

  13. #178
    Gone Andromeda grapefruit_is_winning's Avatar
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    I am honestly shocked that Trumpo + the Regaglicums haven't managed to get us into some completely unnecessary ongoing physical confrontation with some brown skinned nation somewhere. God knows they would love it. Sept 11th got GW a second term. Presidents at war often stay in power. I shudder to think. Literally shudder.

    Speaking of Cuba, I happened to be in Havana the same day last week that Trumpo announced his decision to once again block American citizens from visiting there. The new policy took effect the very next morning at 8:30am EST. Had we arrived at port on Thursday instead of Wednesday morning, we wouldn't have been able to get off the boat. US Citizens no longer possess the legal autonomy to travel to Cuba for recreational or educational purposes. Only our President can decide which Americans can visit Cuba, and for what reasons. Ummm what now? Think about that. It's nuts.

    And it's also so arbitrary, so ridiculous, and so corrupt. It will harm every day Cubans and their standards of living. It's counter-productive and backwards - truly vapid on every conceivable level. But I digress.

    Michael and I and all of our crew spent a great day there. It's a very interesting place, really colorful, and quite unique from my point of view. Lots to explore. It may be many years before an American can legally return under such circumstances.

  14. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by grapefruit_is_winning View Post
    It is certainly not in the bag and very dangerous to think so!
    Oh of course its not in the bag for democrats. But thats my point. Dems need someone to excite the base to come out and vote. It might not be a popular opinion round here, but running on 'Trump is bad' is not good enough. I don't see anyone outside of Warren and Sanders who would do this. Not Harris. Not Mayor Pete. And certainly NOT BIDEN. Dem loyalists (which mostly prefer Biden at this point) are not enough to secure a victoy in 2020.

  15. #180
    worth a million in prizes .chris's Avatar
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    I really do not want Biden to get the nomination. It is going to be such a predictable disaster if that is the case. I'm really hoping he crashes and burns in the debates. I can deal with just about any other candidate but him.

    I have to disagree with you about the other candidates. I think Biden is really going all in on the anti-Trump messaging. The other candidates spend a more even approach discussing the issues. The problem is every freaking day Trump does something crazy and that is the first thing the candidates are asked to respond about. And that's what makes the news. The democrats are really bad at controlling media narratives. It is such shame. Just look at how horribly they are handling the impeachment question.
    Last edited by .chris; 06-14-2019 at 09:09 PM.

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