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Thread: US Elections 2020 - These little earthquakes. Here we go again.

  1. #61
    Loves ponies. Hates phonies. Regina Phalange's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Guys, I don't know if this is good or bad, smart thinking or desperation, but I got a letter from the DNC today. Asking politely for money and a whole bunch of questions in a survey. If they're thinking like a team a year and a half out... well, yay Tom Perez? I've gotten individual mailers, but nothing from the DNC itself. Ever.

    I don't know if I should fill it out. Do you think they REALLY care what a bluest-blue state voter who isn't going to give them money cares about? Like is this a sincere request to understand the base or solely a money making thing?

  2. #62
    megaphone to my chest MikeEP's Avatar
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    Jun 2010
    Quote Originally Posted by Andyland View Post
    My understanding is that Sanders supporters voted for Clinton at higher rates than Clinton supporters voted for Obama in 2008.
    I’d like to see a source on that if there is one. It seems unlikely to me but I could definitely be wrong.

  3. #63
    Senior Member Nick's Avatar
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    Jun 2010
    New York, NY
    Even if they personally voted (I know many did not, but I'm sure many others did), the problem was the general anti-Clinton hysteria they created. The real Bernie-bros are likely to be highly engaged voters who picked Clinton in the end out of necessity (while rambling endlessly on social media about holding their nose while they did it), but they fed into a narrative that no doubt depressed turnout among on-the-fence young voters who probably just didn't vote at all because they suddenly weren't going to get free college. Her margins were so slim in all of the decisive states, we'll never know if endless blathering about her paid speeches (gasp!) made the difference in the end. But we know it didn't help.

  4. #64
    Gone Andromeda grapefruit_is_winning's Avatar
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    Apr 2014
    Here are a couple of articles that give a substantive data-based analysis on this issue. It's actually a really complex question with a lot of factors. A data science PhD candidate could easily write a dissertation on this topic:

    This article supports the hypothesis that Sanders did NOT cost Clinton the election:

    From the article (abbreviated):

    This article supports the hypothesis that Sanders DID cost Clinton the election (although I think it must be said that this article takes a very simplistic view, which rests on the assumption that the 20% of Sanders supporters who did not vote for Clinton would have voted for her if Sanders had not run in the primary):

    Actually, the headline on this one is kind of clickbait, because the article concludes: "While much was made of the so-called Bernie-or-bust phenomenon, the number of Sanders supporters who crossed party lines to vote for Trump in 2016 may not be that unusual. A 2010 study in Public Opinion Quarterly found that in the 2008 election 25 percent of those who voted for Clinton in the Democratic primary ended up voting for Republican John McCain, rather than Barack Obama, in the general election."

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